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Since 11 OctRUNNING
Big three at home vs the rest — Primeira Liga
by NOPREDICTIONS
“Benfica, Porto and Sporting at home beat the closing price against the rest of the league.”
Tested as: Back Benfica, FC Porto or Sporting CP to win at home in the Primeira Liga — not against each other, not against SC Braga. 1u at the Polymarket ask, inside 45 minutes of kick-off. History at the Pinnacle close 2012-25: 531 bets, +29.1u, +5.5%, 11 of 13 seasons positive.
Last bet 3d agoBuild your own variation
Your copy runs the same rule in your account and builds its own record. Paper money, real prices.
Settled bets3none open
Record2–1won–lost
Win rate66.7%2 of 3
P&L−0.59uon 3u staked
Yield−19.6%profit ÷ staked
CLV—not measured
3 of the 200 settled bets a verdict needs — until then this is a record, not a result. A run of wins or losses this short is mostly the draw.
Profit and loss
The strategy
- Bets on
- The home team to win
- When
- Home team is one of: Benfica, FC Porto, Sporting CP
- Home team is not: SC Braga
- Away team is not: Benfica, FC Porto, Sporting CP, SC Braga
- Where
- Primeira Liga (Portugal)
- How
- One paper bet of 1 unit per game, on Polymarket, in the 45 minutes before kick-off, at the price on offer.
Bets
| Placed | Bet | Odds | Result | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 19:4631 Oct | FC Porto to winFC Porto vs. Estoril Praia | 1.16 | WON | +0.16u |
| Sun 19:4625 Oct | Sporting CP to winSporting CP vs. Académico de Viseu FC | 1.27 | LOST | −1.00u |
| Sun 16:1611 Oct | Sport Lisboa e Benfica to winSport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC | 1.25 | WON | +0.25u |