Watch the money.
Not the tip.
Every Polymarket football board, ranked by the side that shortened most in the last 24 hours. Pre-match only, and only where enough has traded for the move to mean anything.
Reading the board…
This is what moved, not what to back. A shortening price is money arriving, and money arriving is not the same as money being right. Our own measurements point the other way: ask movement carried nothing beyond the ask level, and pre-match Polymarket football did not survive the spread floor. Both are written up in Insights.
The board is ordered by probability points, not by the percentage the odds fell. They disagree, and the disagreement matters: 11.87 to 10.20 is 14.1% of the price and 1.4 points of probability, while 2.68 to 2.40 is 10.4% and 4.1 points. Ranking on the percentage would put longshots at the top of every board for no reason other than their arithmetic.
The board is ordered by probability points, not by the percentage the odds fell. They disagree, and the disagreement matters: 11.87 to 10.20 is 14.1% of the price and 1.4 points of probability, while 2.68 to 2.40 is 10.4% and 4.1 points. Ranking on the percentage would put longshots at the top of every board for no reason other than their arithmetic.